Plain Sight Research · Public Accountability Ledger

The Scorecard

Every falsifiable prediction in the Plain Sight series — graded honestly, dated transparently, and updated each Sunday whether it flatters the thesis or wounds it.

Most macro commentary is unfalsifiable on purpose. Predictions are couched in language soft enough to mean whatever the next month requires them to mean. The Plain Sight papers were written the other way — with specific numbers, specific dates, and specific conditions. That choice has a cost. The cost is this ledger, which makes the misses as visible as the hits.

Each entry below identifies the original claim, the paper and date it was made, the falsification condition, the current reading, and an honest verdict. When a call is wrong, the entry names the reasoning failure in the same paragraph as the verdict — not in a footnote, not in a follow-up paper, here.

Last updated: Sunday, 14 June 2026
Source canon: Papers 1–20, suveett.substack.com
Predictions tracked: 12
Update cadence: Every Sunday IST

Hits

Misses

Too Early

Partial

Pending

Withdrawn

Verdict Key

HitFalsifiable condition met within window.

MissFalsification condition triggered against thesis.

Too EarlyDirection confirmed; magnitude/mechanism not yet reached. Window still open.

PartialDirection confirmed; mechanism partially operational ahead of schedule.

PendingWindow still open. No verdict yet.

UnfalsifiableIn retrospect not testable. Withdrawn.

P1 (Detonator) · Made March–April 2026 · Window: by Q3 2026

The Fed will hike before it cuts in 2026.

Stage 1 — the Fed, ECB and major central banks will initially hike rates in 2026 when oil/distillate-driven CPI reaches 6–7% by mid-year, because the Fed always follows the 2-year Treasury.

Falsification: the Fed cuts before it hikes.

Paper: P1 (Detonator)
Made on: March / April 2026
Window: by Q3 2026
Reading · US 2Y: 4.087% (14 Jun 2026) — pulled back from 4.145% high on June 6 but remains structurally elevated; still above the 3.659% 200-day SMA
Reading · Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75% (held) · Warsh first FOMC June 16–17 · Polymarket: 99.5% probability of hold; markets pricing zero cuts for 2026, some hike probability for late 2026/Q1 2027
Reading · US CPI: 4.2% YoY (May 2026, BLS primary — released June 10) — energy +23.5% YoY, gasoline +40.5% YoY; energy accounted for over 60% of monthly CPI gain; core CPI 2.9% YoY
FOMC June 16–17: Warsh's first meeting as Chair. Hold near-certain at 99.5%. FOMC April minutes showed 8-4 split with 4 members pushing to remove easing language. May minutes showed majority now see possibility of raising rates if Iran-war inflation persists.

Pending US 2Y at 4.087% — slightly off its 4.145% peak of June 6 but structurally unchanged. May CPI confirmed at 4.2% YoY (BLS, June 10) — the third consecutive monthly acceleration, driven by energy at +23.5% YoY. This is not yet the 5.5–7% threshold the hike call requires, but the trajectory is intact and the timeline is compressing. Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16–17: near-certain hold, but the language shift matters — April minutes showed 4 members already pushing to remove easing language, and May minutes showed a majority now see hike risk if Iran-war inflation persists. The 2Y at 4.087% with core PCE elevated and headline CPI rising is exactly the pre-hike loading the thesis described. Window: by Q3 2026. Still open.

P1 (Detonator) · Made 3 April 2026 · Window: through Q4 2027

Brent stays structurally elevated through 2026–2027; demand destruction creates the cascade, not a resolution.

S2+S4 = 68% combined probability. The base case is not a straight line to $170 — it is a two-phase path: Phase 1, Brent climbs toward $130–150 as Hormuz remains constrained; the demand destruction from that spike triggers the economic cascade (Stage 2 Forced Pivot). Phase 2, oil temporarily drops back toward $90–110 during the recession trough before resuming higher — toward $180 by Q4 2027 — once Stage 3 QE restores liquidity and supply remains structurally impaired. The thesis is not about the peak price. It is about the mechanism: oil shock → credit break → forced pivot → nuclear print → oil resumes.

Falsification requires two conditions to be true simultaneously, and both must materialise before Q3 2026: Brent collapses below $85 and holds there for two consecutive months without Hormuz reopening, AND no credit event or forced pivot materialises. One condition without the other is not falsification. If Hormuz resolves and Brent falls to $80–90, that is S3 — a separate scenario already assigned 20% probability, not a failure of the S2/S4 mechanism.

Paper: P1 (Detonator)
Made on: 3 April 2026
Window: through Q4 2027 (two-phase path)
Reading · Brent (UKOIL spot): $86.79 (13 Jun 2026 close) — down from $92.79 last week; down ~6.5% on the week
Reading · BRN1! futures: $88.87 (13 Jun 2026) — NOT used for IBM CPI transmission calculations per Editorial Decision E5
Hormuz status: Effectively closed, Day 103. 2 transits recorded June 7 vs ~94/day pre-crisis baseline (IMF PortWatch). War-risk insurance at 8× pre-crisis; 6 P&I clubs withdrawn cover. 287 vessels anchored or stopped. JMIC downgraded threat assessment June 7 from Critical to Severe (second highest) due to limited "southern route" transits near Oman. Frontline CEO June 11: traffic "will not return anytime soon to prewar levels." Trump said US Navy secretly helped 200 ships and 100M barrels through Hormuz in past month via escort operation. Brent Falls headline: "US-Iran Deal Could..." (June 13) — some ceasefire optimism re-emerging.
SPR status: Drawdown continuing. Two consecutive all-time weekly records set in May. Approaching legal minimum zone.

Too Early Brent (UKOIL spot) at $86.79 — a sharper pullback this week than last, driven by renewed ceasefire diplomacy signals and modest Hormuz southern-route escort traffic (US Navy escort of ~200 vessels over past month per Trump). The Phase 1 threshold of $130–150 has not been reached. Critically: the falsification condition has also not been triggered. Brent has not closed below $85 for two consecutive months, and no credit event or forced pivot has materialised to prove the cascade broke. The mechanism is still loading. The Hormuz crisis is Day 103 — 2 transits vs 94/day baseline = still effectively closed. JMIC downgrade from Critical to Severe is a diplomatic signal, not a reopening. The $86.79 level is inside the $80–90 range IBM already assigned 20% probability (S3: Hormuz partial resolution) — which is explicitly not a thesis failure. If Brent stabilises here and Hormuz gradually reopens on escort terms, that confirms S3 and the cascade timeline extends. Window: through Q4 2027. Intact.

P3 (Gromen Signal) · Made April 2026 · Window: alarm above 18,000

USDJPY × Brent — the two-clock pressure gauge on Japan.

When the yen weakens AND oil rises simultaneously, this product spikes. The mechanism: Japan’s oil import bill is denominated in dollars, so a rising USDJPY × Brent blows out Japan’s balance-of-payments deficit. This forces the MOF/BOJ hand into raising rates to defend the yen against imported inflation. The rate hike then compresses the JPY-USD carry trade differential, triggering Japanese institutional carry-trade unwinds — and forced selling of US Treasuries to repatriate yen. Alarm level: above ~18,000.

Falsification: product holds below 14,000 for two consecutive months while BOJ remains on hold and Japanese institutional UST holdings rise on net.

Paper: P3 (Gromen Signal)
Made on: April 2026
Reading · USDJPY: 160.228 (13 Jun 2026 close) — above 158 resistance; SMA 200 at 155.70; EMA 20 at 159.66
Reading · Brent (UKOIL): $86.79
Reading · Product: 13,904 (160.228 × $86.79) — 22.8% from alarm threshold of 18,000
BOJ meeting: June 15–16: 49 of 51 Bloomberg economists expect 25bp hike to 1.00% — highest since 1995. Bloomberg and BOJ sources confirm discussion of hike. Ueda speech called hike "certain or highly likely" per 94% of survey respondents. If hike delivered, carry unwind mechanism activates immediately.
Next TIC data: June 18 (April holdings data) — will show whether Q1 selling pace ($29.6B in Q1) accelerated in April

Pending Product at 13,904 — moved further from the 18,000 alarm this week as Brent pulled back to $86.79 from $92.79. The product distance from alarm is now 22.8% vs 17.4% last week. However the falsification condition (below 14,000 for two consecutive months) has not been triggered — and critically, the BOJ June 15–16 decision is the key event this week. With 49 of 51 Bloomberg economists expecting a 25bp hike to 1.00%, a BOJ hike would trigger carry unwind immediately regardless of where the product sits. The product is a price gauge; the BOJ decision is the mechanism trigger. USDJPY above 160 with a BOJ hike incoming is precisely the setup the paper described. Watching: BOJ June 16 decision, USDJPY reaction, TIC data June 18.

P7 (Final Gaslight) · Made April 2026 · Window: through Q1 2027

The 16% SPX rally in 13 days — the fastest correction-to-record recovery in 98 years — is the final gaslight before the rug-pull.

The S&P 500 bottomed at ~6,320 on March 31, 2026 — driven down by the Iran war, the Hormuz closure, and surging oil prices. From that low, the index recovered to new all-time highs within 13 trading days — the fastest correction-to-record recovery in 98 years. The catalyst was ceasefire optimism that never materialised. Islamabad talks failed. The naval blockade began April 13. Hormuz remained at ~5% of normal throughput. SPX briefly touched 7,620 (52-week high) on that optimism, then reversed.

Falsification: SPX rises above 7,500 by Q3 2026 AND sustains through Q1 2027 without a credit event. Below that level, “rally extends” — exactly what the paper anticipated, not invalidation.

Paper: P7 (Final Gaslight)
Made on: April 2026
Window: through Q1 2027
Reading · SPX: 7,431.45 (13 Jun 2026) — up +0.50% on the day; SMA 200 at 6,881.99; EMA 20 at 7,423.60; last week close was 7,383.74
Falsification test: SPX at 7,431.45 — below the 7,500 falsification threshold. Has not breached and sustained above 7,500 without a credit event.
VIX: Not reported this week; SPX recovering modestly from Friday June 6 drop

Too Early SPX at 7,431.45 — recovered somewhat from the 7,383.74 close on June 6 (when VIX surged 39.68% to 21.51). The index remains below the 7,500 falsification threshold and well above the 6,881.99 SMA 200. The gaslight thesis is intact: the market remains structurally elevated on AI optimism and ceasefire hopes while the underlying mechanism (CPI acceleration, rate hike repricing, Japan carry unwind risk) continues to load. Falsification requires sustaining above 7,500 through Q1 2027 without a credit event — that bar has not been cleared. Window: through Q1 2027. Intact.

P4 (India’s Tightrope) · Made April 2026 · Window: end-2026

USD/INR weakens to 98–100 in the S2/S4 base case (68% probability).

India imports ~90% of its oil in dollars. As Brent stays elevated and the dollar strengthens on Fed hawkishness, India’s current account deficit widens, forcing INR lower. In the S2+S4 base case (68% combined probability), USD/INR reaches 98–100. Options market pricing implied 41% probability of touching 100 by year-end. The mechanism is structural: RBI can slow the depreciation but cannot reverse it while the oil shock persists.

Falsification: USD/INR closes 2026 below 95 — meaning the import-bill mechanism has been fully absorbed through reserve drawdown, export surge, or Hormuz resolution restoring oil below $80. All three would need to hold simultaneously.

Paper: P4 (India’s Tightrope)
Made on: April 2026
Window: by end-2026
Reading · USD/INR: 95.100 (12 Jun 2026 close) — distance from falsification trigger (95.00): 0.10 rupees. SMA 200 at 91.226; EMA 20 at 95.381
RBI June 5 policy: Held repo rate at 5.25% (third consecutive hold). Simultaneously launched dollar swap facility: fully subsidised FX hedging for FCNR(B) deposits, concessional ECB swap for PSUs, expanded FAR G-sec universe (15/30/40-year), government removed capital gains and interest tax for FIIs retrospectively from April 1, 2026. MUFG estimates ~$40B inflows from these combined measures.
Falsification risk: USDINR at 95.10 is 0.10 rupees from the falsification trigger. RBI’s June 5 package is explicitly designed to attract dollar inflows and hold the rupee. If $40B flows arrive and Brent stays at $86–88, the 95.00 trigger is at serious risk.

Partial USD/INR at 95.10 (June 14 spot). The falsification condition is a year-end close below 95 — six and a half months away. A spot reading of 95.10 in mid-June is not close to triggering that condition. Context: the rupee touched 96.97 intraday in May before RBI intervention pulled it back. The RBI June 5 package (~$40B potential inflows from FCNR(B) swaps, ECB swaps, and FII tax removal) may slow the depreciation pace but does not reverse the structural forces: elevated oil import bill, $13.7B net FPI outflows year-to-date (per RBI's own June statement), and current account pressure. IBM 98–100 year-end target remains the base case. The mechanism is operating exactly as described. Window: year-end close 2026. Intact.

P9 (Forced Checkmate) · Made 28 April 2026 · Window: through Q1 2027

Stage 1 → Stage 2 path is structurally locked, regardless of who chairs.

Warsh as a new chair has every strategic incentive to establish hawkish credibility before pivoting under Trump pressure. The thesis is the path (hike → forced cut), not the calendar. Earlier pivot ≠ thesis broken — earlier pivot = compressed timeline. In a rising-inflation environment without other deterioration factors, Warsh holds hawkish; if private credit blows up + SPX drops 25% + Japan starts forced UST selling, Warsh pivots fast — but that is acceleration of Stages 1→2→3, not invalidation.

Falsification: Fed holds rates steady through Q1 2027 with no cut delivered AND no observable crisis (private credit spreads compressed, SPX above current levels, no forced Japanese UST selling). That is the path that would actually break the thesis.

Paper: P9 (Forced Checkmate)
Made on: 28 April 2026
Window: through Q1 2027
Reading: Fed Funds 3.50–3.75% · held · Warsh Chair · June 16–17 is his first FOMC · April minutes: 8-4 split, 4 members pushing to remove rate-cut language · May minutes: majority now see hike appropriate if Iran-war inflation persists · Market: zero cuts priced for 2026, some hike probability late 2026/Q1 2027
US CPI May: 4.2% YoY (BLS, June 10) — third consecutive monthly acceleration; energy at +23.5% YoY
Key dates: June 16–17: Warsh first FOMC · June 16: BOJ rate decision (49/51 economists expect hike to 1.00%) · July 30: next FOMC if June holds

Pending The path thesis. This week is the most loaded since the paper was written: Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16–17, BOJ decides June 16 (49 of 51 economists expect a hike to 1.00%), and US CPI just printed 4.2% YoY with energy at +23.5% — the third consecutive monthly acceleration. If BOJ hikes June 16, carry unwind mechanism activates. If Warsh signals hike readiness at June 16–17, Stage 1 clock starts. The FOMC April-to-May language evolution (8-4 split → majority now sees hike risk) is precisely the pre-hike loading the thesis described. Falsification requires Fed on hold through Q1 2027 with no crisis — that bar gets harder to clear with every inflation print. Window: through Q1 2027. Intact.

P5 (Dadi Was a Bitcoiner) · Made April 2026 · Window: by Q4 2028

Gold reaches $7,000–$10,000 by Q4 2028 in S2/S4.

Per Gromen framework, US official gold reserves vs foreign-held US Treasuries currently at ~17%. To return to long-term average (40%), gold would need to quadruple. Base case: $7,000–$10,000 by end of cycle.

Falsification: gold below $5,500 by Q4 2028 (demand for USTs still structurally strong, dollar hegemony intact). No upper-bound falsification — gold above $12,000 confirms the thesis more violently.

Paper: P5 (Dadi Was a Bitcoiner)
Made on: April 2026
Window: by Q4 2028
Reading · Gold: $4,218.97 (13 Jun 2026 close) — down from $4,328.92 last week; down ~$110 on the week; SMA 200 at $4,423.60; EMA 20 at $4,399.44
YoY performance: ATH was $5,589 (January 28, 2026). Current price ~25% below ATH. Still up strongly from paper origin (~March 2026 at ~$3,000 level).

Too Early Gold at $4,218.97 — second consecutive week of meaningful pullback. Now below both SMA 200 ($4,423) and EMA 20 ($4,399), a technically weak configuration. The drivers: Brent pulling back to $86 (reducing safe-haven premium), some ceasefire optimism, and rotation out of commodities on the Hormuz southern-route escort news. However the $7,000–$10,000 target requires the IBM Stage 2–3 mechanism to fully materialise — that mechanism is still loading, not fired. The current pullback from $5,589 ATH is consistent with the thesis's two-phase structure: gold corrects during the "ceasefire optimism" phase and resumes once the nuclear print and fiscal dominance phase arrives. Falsification requires gold below $5,500 by Q4 2028 — the current level of $4,218 is well below that bar but two years of timeline remain. Window: by Q4 2028. Intact.

P5 (Dadi Was a Bitcoiner) · Made April 2026 · Window: full-year 2026

Indian FD post-tax real returns go negative in 2026.

The mechanism is post-tax, not nominal. FD interest is taxed at the saver’s slab rate — for the 30% slab cohort, an FD at 7% nominal yields ~4.9% post-tax. With CPI tracking toward 5–7% on oil/distillate pass-through and food inflation, this saver experiences a clearly negative real return on the safest asset they trust.

Falsification: India CPI averages below 4.0% for 2026 calendar year, OR FD post-tax yields rise above CPI for two consecutive quarters.

Paper: P5 (Dadi Was a Bitcoiner)
Made on: April 2026
Window: full-year 2026
Reading · India CPI (May 2026): 3.93% YoY (MoSPI provisional, released June 12, 2026) — up from 3.48% in April; fifth consecutive monthly rise; highest in new 2024-base series; food inflation (CFPI) 4.78%; rural food inflation 4.85%; transport inflation turned positive for first time in May as OMCs raised petrol/diesel prices 4 times — first fuel price increases in 4 years
Reading · WPI (Apr): 8.3% YoY (Apr 2026, provisional) · fuel & power sub-index +24.71% · manufacturing +4.62%
Reading · FD rate: ~7.0% nominal · ~4.9% post-tax (30% slab)
RBI rate: 5.25% (held June 5, 2026 — third consecutive hold)
Real return (30% slab): 4.9% post-tax FD − 3.93% CPI = +0.97% currently. Positive but compressing fast. At 5%+ CPI (IBM projection for Aug–Sep), real return goes negative.

Pending India CPI at 3.93% (May 2026, MoSPI primary — June 12). Fifth consecutive monthly rise in the new 2024-base series. The trajectory is unambiguous: January 2.75% → February 3.21% → March 3.40% → April 3.48% → May 3.93%. Transport inflation turned positive for the first time in May as OMCs raised fuel prices four times — the first fuel price increases in four years. This is the early oil transmission the thesis predicted. At 3.93%, the 30% slab saver still earns a thin +0.97% real return post-tax. But the direction is confirmed and the pace is accelerating. The falsification condition (CPI averaging below 4.0% for full-year 2026) is now mathematically very difficult — with five months already averaging ~3.51% and the oil pass-through loading, the full-year average will almost certainly breach 4.0% in the second half. Watching: June CPI (July 14), RBI August MPC, monsoon impact on food prices. Window: full-year 2026. Intact and loading.

P2 (Art of the Invisible War) · Made April 2026 · Verdict: HIT

UAE-Treasury swap line is dollar-negative in the long run.

Extending dollar swap lines to additional countries papers over the petrodollar erosion in the short term but accelerates the structural decline of dollar dominance — every bilateral swap is an admission that the standard dollar-funding markets cannot serve that counterparty cleanly anymore.

Falsification: would require swap-line extensions to correlate with rising, not falling, foreign UST holdings net of FX intervention.

Paper: P2 (Art of the Invisible War)
Made on: April 2026
Trigger event: UAE swap-line request, April 2026
Confirming evidence: UAE swap request itself is the confirming evidence. The request is an admission the standard dollar-funding market cannot serve the UAE cleanly — exactly the mechanism the paper described.

Hit UAE swap-line request itself is the confirming evidence. Verdict locked.

P2 (Art of the Invisible War) · Made April 2026 · Verdict: HIT

OPEC fissures crystallise in 2026; UAE the most likely first defector.

The petrodollar architecture sits on a coordination assumption that no longer holds. Gulf producers diverge as Hormuz instability persists, and these defections are not isolated events — they are confirmation of the broader petrodollar structural breakdown thesis from P2 (The Art of the Invisible War).

Falsification: would require OPEC+ to hold full membership through 2027 with no public defections AND coordinated quota discipline maintained. Both have failed.

Paper: P2 (Art of the Invisible War)
Made on: April 2026
Trigger event: UAE OPEC+ exit announced 28 April 2026
Confirming evidence: UAE swap-line request to US Treasury (same week)

Hit UAE announced OPEC+ exit April 28, 2026 — the specific defection the paper named. Simultaneously requested a US Treasury swap line. Both conditions of the falsification test failed within the window. Verdict locked.

P9 (Forced Checkmate) · Made April 2026 · Window: August 2026 verdict

Japan August 2026 — forced UST selling, not discretionary.

Japan’s balance-of-payments mechanics force UST selling regardless of BOJ preference. Two simultaneous shocks (carry unwind + oil import cost) = forced checkmate framing.

Falsification: Japanese institutional UST holdings rise on net through August–October 2026.

Paper: P9 (Forced Checkmate)
Made on: April 2026
Window: August 2026 — pivotal verdict · Q1 data already confirming direction
Reading · Q1 2026: Japanese institutions sold net ¥4.67T (~$29.6B) in USTs in Q1 2026 — largest quarterly reduction since 2022. Monthly selling nearly quadrupled Jan–Mar. Source: Japanese MoF flow data.
Reading · Holdings: Japan holds ~$1.19T in USTs (TIC, latest available). Q1 selling = ~2.5% of total position. Acceleration rate is the signal.
BOJ June 16: 49 of 51 Bloomberg economists expect 25bp hike to 1.00%. If delivered, carry unwind triggers immediately — Japanese institutions reverse UST positions to repatriate yen. This could bring the August verdict forward to June/July.
TIC data: April holdings data releases June 18 — will confirm whether Q1 pace accelerated in April.

Partial Direction confirmed well ahead of the August window. Q1 2026 data showed ¥4.67T (~$29.6B) sold in USTs — largest quarterly reduction since 2022. Annual pace exceeds $100B. The mechanism is already operating. Partial verdict stands because the August pivotal window has not yet arrived and the full forced-selling episode (triggered by BOJ hike + carry unwind) has not yet materialised at scale. BOJ June 16 decision is now the key near-term trigger: if the hike delivers (49/51 economists expect it), the carry unwind begins and August verdict may arrive early. TIC data June 18 will provide April confirmation. Watching: BOJ June 16, TIC June 18, USDJPY response to hike.

P8 (Trial of Money) · Made April 2026 · Window: by end-2030

The Fourth Turning arrives in America before 2030.

A civilisational crisis cycle — debt supercycle peak + generational conflict + external war + internal political chaos — repeating the 80-year pattern that has held since 1780. Not a recession. A constitutional, institutional, and social fracture event of the magnitude last seen in the 1860s and 1940s.

Falsification: by end of 2030, no observable institutional rupture, no major constitutional crisis, no civil-conflict-level domestic instability, and the federal political system continues operating within recognisable post-1945 parameters.

Paper: P8 (Trial of Money)
Made on: April 2026
Window: by end-2030
Stress indicators this week: US naval blockade of a sovereign nation (Iran — Day 103) raising constitutional war powers questions. Warsh first FOMC June 16–17: Trump-Fed independence dynamic in focus. FOMC internal division (8-4 split April) is itself an institutional stress marker. US debt ceiling and fiscal trajectory unresolved.

Pending Long-window structural call. Window: by end-2030. Early stress markers accumulating: US naval blockade of Iran (Day 103, raising war powers constitutional questions), growing FOMC internal division, Trump-Fed independence tension entering its first real test as Warsh chairs June 16–17. The Fourth Turning framework does not predict a specific date — it predicts the CHARACTER of the crisis. The character is emerging. Watching: Warsh FOMC language June 17, Trump response, any constitutional challenge to the Iran blockade. Window intact — four years remain.