// Macro Signals
USDJPY × Brent
Japan imports ~90% of its energy. When the yen weakens AND oil rises simultaneously, this product spikes — signalling that Japanese life insurers and pension funds face mounting losses on their US Treasury holdings and will begin selling them for FX risk management. This is one of Luke Gromen's core early-warning signals for UST selling pressure. Alarm level: above ~18,000.
USDCNY × Brent
China imports ~11 million barrels per day. When this product rises, it means China's dollar-denominated oil bill is inflating materially — increasing the incentive to route purchases through yuan settlement (Shanghai INE, CIPS, bilateral swap lines). Each barrel settled in yuan removes one barrel's worth of structural dollar demand from commodity markets. This is the petrodollar erosion signal. Alarm level: above ~840.
US 2Y Yield
The 2-year Treasury is the market's best real-time pricing of where the Fed Funds Rate will be in 24 months. When US2Y rises sharply alongside US10Y, it confirms the market is pricing a sustained rate hike cycle — not a temporary adjustment. The Gromen Triple Signal requires US01Y, US02Y, and US10Y all rising together. Watch for 2Y breaking above 5% as the convergence confirmation.
US 10Y Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield is the global risk-free rate — the denominator in almost every valuation model on earth. When it rises above 5.0% with 2Y and 1Y also rising, the Gromen Triple Signal fires. Every 1% rise in the 10Y adds approximately $314 billion to the US annual interest bill on $31.4T of public debt. At 5%, interest costs reach $1.57 trillion — 30% of all federal revenues. This is the structural insolvency threshold.
DXY — Dollar Index
The Dollar Index measures USD strength against a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF). In an acute risk-off crash, DXY rises as leveraged positions globally are dollar-denominated — margin calls create immediate dollar demand. However, 4–8 weeks after the crash, when markets begin pricing the Fed pivot and QE, DXY begins falling structurally. A falling DXY alongside falling yen is the Zulauf Dual Debasement Signal — the most powerful monetary regime shift indicator in this framework.
Brent Crude
The global oil benchmark and the single most important input into global inflation. Brent is the transmission mechanism — what happens at the wellhead eventually reaches every consumer's wallet. Below $70: benign energy environment. Low inflation pressure. Central banks have room to cut. Risk assets generally perform well. $70–$90: normal range. Moderate pass-through into transportation and manufacturing costs. Headline CPI elevated but manageable. $90–$115: elevated shock. Energy becomes a meaningful drag on consumer spending. CPI trajectory accelerates. Central banks face the first signs of the impossible choice — inflation is rising but growth is slowing. $115–$140: severe shock. Full second and third-order pass-through begins — food prices rise (fertiliser and freight costs), petrochemicals reprice (packaging, plastics), wage indexation embeds. CPI reaches levels that force central bank action even into a weakening economy. Above $140: crisis territory. Demand destruction begins but with a lag — the economy contracts faster than inflation falls. Stagflation. Every dollar above $100 sustained for 30+ days is approximately 0.3–0.5% added to US headline CPI within two quarters. Watch where Brent is right now — the signal panel badge tells you which regime we are in.
HY Credit Spreads
High-yield (junk bond) credit spreads measure the extra yield investors demand to hold corporate debt instead of Treasuries. Approximately 40% of Russell 2000 companies are "zombies" — they cannot service their debt at current interest rates without refinancing. When HY spreads widen to 400–600 basis points, it confirms that credit markets are simultaneously pricing recession alongside equities. This simultaneous crack in equities AND credit is the India Bitcoin Man Stage 2 pivot trigger. 200-300bps: Normal. 300-600bps: Elevated. >600 bps: Alarm. >1000 bps: Credit Event Most Likely. >2000bps: Full Global Catastrophe.
SPX / Gold Ratio
This ratio measures how many ounces of gold it takes to buy one unit of the S&P 500. It is one of the most powerful long-term monetary regime indicators in existence. During periods of sound money and rising real growth, the ratio rises — equities outperform gold. During long-term debt cycles approaching their terminal phase, the ratio falls for years as gold reasserts its role as the ultimate store of value. This is not a tactical trade — it is the market's verdict on the long-term debt cycle reset. A declining SPX/Gold ratio that does not recover is the Zulauf Dual Debasement Signal partially confirming. In the IBM thesis, this ratio reaches its cycle low when the Fed's nuclear print (Stage 3) drives a full monetary reset.
SPX / M2 Money Supply
Dividing the S&P 500 by the M2 money supply strips out the inflation of the monetary base — showing whether equity valuations are genuinely elevated or merely reflections of money printing. When this ratio is high, it means stocks are expensive even after accounting for monetary debasement. Reading 1-2: Standard. Reading 2-3: Elevated. Reading 3+: Danger Zone. In every prior cycle, when the Fed was forced to expand the money supply aggressively (QE), this ratio fell sharply as M2 grew faster than equity prices. Stage 3 of the India Bitcoin Man thesis is explicitly a scenario where M2 surges and this ratio collapses.
Fed Balance Sheet
The Federal Reserve's total assets — the size of its balance sheet — is the most direct measure of monetary expansion. It went from $4.2T to $9T during COVID QE (2020–2021), producing the largest nominal asset price appreciation in history. Stage 3 of the IBM thesis projects the balance sheet expanding from $7T toward $10–12T as the Fed is forced to monetise both the private credit crisis and the federal deficit simultaneously. This is the nuclear print. When this number begins rising rapidly again, Gold Phase 2 and the Bitcoin Dark Horse thesis activate. Watch for weekly WALCL data from FRED.
Zulauf Dual Debasement
Felix Zulauf's structural monetary alarm. It fires when both the US dollar AND the Japanese yen are simultaneously weakening against hard assets and sound-money currencies (CHF, gold, NOK). Normally in a risk-off episode, both the dollar and yen strengthen as safe havens. When they stop doing this — when both are falling together — it signals that markets have concluded both reserve/funding currencies are being structurally debased simultaneously. This is not a tactical signal. It is the market's verdict that the monetary regime itself is breaking down. The India Bitcoin Man framework conditions: DXY falling + Gold rising in both USD and JPY terms + USD/CHF falling — all simultaneously for 3+ weeks.
Global Net Liquidity
The sum of the four largest central-bank balance sheets — Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China — minus the US Treasury General Account and the Fed's Reverse Repo facility, all converted to USD. This is the single most powerful macro driver of risk-asset prices. When global liquidity expands, everything with a price goes up — equities, credit, crypto, commodities. When it contracts, everything sells off. Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital showed that Bitcoin in particular correlates ~0.9 with global liquidity on a 3–6 month lag. A sustained acceleration in this figure is the clearest confirmation that Stage 3 of the India Bitcoin Man thesis — the nuclear print — is underway. Source: FRED (WALCL, ECBASSETSW, JPNASSETS, CHTBALSA) + TradingView FX rates.
// Bitcoin Signals
Bitcoin Price
The current BTC/USD spot price from CoinGecko. All other Bitcoin metrics are interpreted relative to this price. The most important question is not whether the price is high or low in absolute terms — it is where price sits relative to on-chain cost basis metrics (Realised Price, Balanced Price) and cycle indicators (MVRV, NUPL, Rainbow Band). Price alone tells you nothing. Price in context of everything else on this panel tells you everything.
200-Week Moving Average
The average of Bitcoin's closing prices over the last 200 weeks (~4 years). Benjamin Cowen's primary long-cycle floor indicator. Bitcoin has closed a weekly candle below its 200-week moving average (200W MA) rarely in its history, typically only during moments of maximum market despair. When price approaches this level, it has historically marked the deepest accumulation zones — the best risk/reward entries of each cycle. When price is well above the 200W MA, the multiple (price ÷ 200W MA) indicates how extended the cycle is.
MVRV Z-Score
Market Value to Realised Value Z-Score. Compares Bitcoin's current market cap to its "realised cap" (the aggregate cost basis of all coins at their last on-chain movement). The Z-Score normalises this ratio against its historical standard deviation. Thresholds: above 7 = historical top zone (sell signal) · above 3 = elevated, caution · 0–3 = mid-cycle · below 0 = deep value / bottom zone (strong buy). This metric has called every major Bitcoin cycle top and bottom. Source: Glassnode (mining/mvrv_z_score).
NUPL — Net Unrealised Profit/Loss
The aggregate unrealised profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders as a percentage of market cap. Measures the emotional state of the entire market. Phase thresholds: above 0.75 = Euphoria/Greed (top zone) · 0.50–0.75 = Belief/Thrill · 0.25–0.50 = Optimism/Denial · 0.00–0.25 = Hope/Fear · below 0.00 = Capitulation (bottom zone). When NUPL is near 0.75+, the average holder is sitting on extreme unrealised gains and is emotionally likely to sell — historically the best time to reduce exposure. When NUPL goes negative, the average holder is at a loss — historically the best accumulation window. Source: Glassnode (indicators/net_unrealized_profit_loss).
BTC Dominance
Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of total cryptocurrency market cap. Rising dominance generally means capital is flowing INTO Bitcoin specifically — either from altcoins rotating to BTC in risk-off environments, or from new money entering crypto via Bitcoin as the most trusted asset. Historically, Bitcoin dominance bottoms near altcoin season peaks (when altcoins are outperforming) and rises through bear markets as capital consolidates into BTC. Cowen uses BTC dominance to time altcoin exposure — when dominance is falling from a peak, altcoins tend to outperform. ~50% and rising is consistent with Bitcoin-led accumulation phase. Source: CoinGecko (/global).
BTC / Gold Ratio
Bitcoin price divided by gold price — how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin buys. This ratio is the single most direct measure of the India Bitcoin Man's "Dark Horse" thesis. When the ratio is rising, Bitcoin is outperforming the world's primary hard asset — confirming the monetary debasement narrative is benefiting Bitcoin more than gold. In the India Bitcoin Man Stage 3 scenario, as the Fed's balance sheet expands dramatically, Bitcoin's institutional infrastructure is orders of magnitude deeper than in prior cycles — the ratio is expected to reach historic new highs as monetary debasement accelerates. Source: Calculated from Twelve Data XAU/USD ÷ CoinGecko BTC price.
Total Crypto / M2
Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation divided by the US M2 money supply. Benjamin Cowen's macro overlay indicator — it strips out monetary inflation to show whether crypto valuations are genuinely expanding or merely tracking money printing. Cowen's thresholds: below 0.05 = early cycle / bottom zone · 0.05–0.15 = mid-cycle · above 0.20 = late cycle / top zone. When global QE (Stage 3) begins, M2 expands rapidly — the ratio can temporarily fall even as nominal crypto prices rise, creating the appearance of value in an inflationary environment. Source: CoinGecko total market cap ÷ FRED M2SL series.
Realised Price
The average price at which every Bitcoin in existence last moved on-chain — the aggregate cost basis of all holders. It represents the "true" average purchase price of the market, weighted by coin holdings. When spot price falls below Realised Price, the average holder is at a loss — historically this marks deep bear market territory and strong accumulation zones. When price is well above Realised Price, the market is in aggregate profit. The Balanced Price (Realised Price minus Transferred Price) marks the full-detox level in bear markets. Source: Glassnode (market/price_realized_usd).
Balanced Price
Realised Price minus Transferred Price — the price at which Bitcoin would trade if every coin were valued at the difference between what was paid for it and what has been transferred through the network over time. Historically, Bitcoin has only touched the Balanced Price during the deepest phases of bear markets — the full-detox level where all speculative premium has been wrung out. When spot price is well above Balanced Price, the market retains significant speculative premium relative to its cost basis floor. This metric complements Realised Price by showing not just the aggregate cost basis but the floor below which Bitcoin has almost never sustained.
Rainbow Band (Log Regression)
Benjamin Cowen's logarithmic regression model — Bitcoin's price plotted against a mathematical power-law growth curve fitted to all price data since 2009. The coloured bands represent multiples of the regression floor. Band interpretation: Red = Maximum Bubble Territory (historical top zone, sell) · Orange = FOMO Zone (caution) · Yellow = Is This a Bubble? · Green = HODL · Teal = Accumulate · Blue = Buy · Indigo = Fire Sale (historically strongest buy). The signal panel shows the current band so you can tell at a glance whether Bitcoin is in a euphoric, mid-cycle, or accumulation regime relative to its long-term power-law trajectory. Source: Calculated from CoinGecko price history using formula: floor = 10^(5.84 × ln(days since genesis) − 17.01).
Puell Multiple
Created by David Puell. Measures today's Bitcoin mining issuance value (daily coins mined × price) divided by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value. It captures whether miners are currently in a highly profitable period (top zone) or a loss-generating period (bottom zone). Thresholds: above 4.0 = extreme top zone (historically strongest sell signal for miners) · above 2.0 = elevated, caution · 0.5–2.0 = normal mid-cycle range · below 0.5 = accumulation zone (miners capitulating, historically excellent risk/reward) · below 0.3 = capitulation (strongest historical buy signal). When miners are deeply unprofitable they are forced to sell holdings — creating the final selling pressure that marks cycle bottoms. Source: Glassnode (mining/puell_multiple).
Pi Cycle Top
Created by Philip Swift. The indicator fires when Bitcoin's 111-day moving average crosses ABOVE twice the 350-day moving average (2×350DMA). This mathematical relationship has called every major Bitcoin cycle top with remarkable precision. Signal: 111DMA ≥ 2×350DMA = TOP SIGNAL. Has fired within days of every major cycle peak. The panel shows the ratio of 111DMA to 2×350DMA and the percentage distance from the trigger level. When the ratio approaches 1.0 (0% distance), the top signal is imminent. Important: no indicator is perfect — treat as one input among many, not a sole decision-making tool. Source: Calculated from CoinGecko daily price history — no additional API needed.
Bitcoin Terminal Price
Created by Willy Woo and Philip Swift. Terminal Price is calculated as Transferred Price × 21, where Transferred Price is the ratio of total coin-days-destroyed to total supply. It represents the theoretical top of this Bitcoin cycle based on the accumulated on-chain economic throughput — essentially, the price level that coin velocity and supply dynamics suggest this cycle is heading toward. Historical interpretation: every prior cycle has approached but not necessarily reached its Terminal Price. It is not a guaranteed target, but a useful upper bound for what the cycle's on-chain economy can sustain. When spot price approaches Terminal Price, the market is running out of theoretical upside fuel and distribution typically accelerates. The ratio of spot to Terminal Price is the clearest gauge of how much runway this cycle has left. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro (paywalled chart, updated periodically).
Supply in Profit / Loss
The percentage of circulating Bitcoin supply whose last on-chain movement was at a price BELOW current spot (in profit) vs ABOVE current spot (in loss). It's a direct proxy for market-wide pain and greed, measured at the coin level rather than the holder level. Thresholds: above 95% in profit = extreme euphoria (historical cycle tops) · 80–95% = healthy bull market · 50–80% = mid-cycle consolidation · below 50% = capitulation territory (historical cycle bottoms). When nearly all coins are in profit and NUPL is elevated, the market is fragile — any shock triggers cascading profit-taking. When most coins are at a loss, the marginal seller has already sold and price stabilises. Current ~76% in profit is healthy mid-cycle territory — not euphoric, not capitulation. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro / Glassnode (paywalled chart).